Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 11–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1684 DFW 08:58 → MSY 10:39 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2237 DFW 19:03 → MSY 20:43 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1684 American	DFW 08:58	MSY 10:39	11%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 1650 American	DFW 09:52	MSY 11:34	13%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 2627 American	DFW 13:28	MSY 15:10	16%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 1455 American Flight history →	DFW 21:27	MSY 23:13	20%	6%	1.0%	59%
AA 3254 American Flight history →	DFW 16:15	MSY 17:58	20%	6%	0.9%	56%
AA 2237 American Flight history →	DFW 19:03	MSY 20:43	21%	7%	1.0%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON