Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 08:12, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Kahului on time.

Nonstops that day


AA 123 American Flight history →	DFW 10:52	OGG 13:55	24%	10%	0.8%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 5 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	DFW 13:55 → SAN 15:07AS 551	3h 48m San Diego	SAN 18:55 → OGG 21:55AS 483	13h 00m	99%	82%
American Details →	DFW 07:08 → PHX 07:34AA 474	3h 29m Phoenix	PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645	12h 24m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	DFW 08:12 → SLC 09:59DL 1291	1h 31m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623	10h 56m	96%	74%
Alaska Details →	DFW 09:56 → SEA 11:56AS 365	1h 57m Seattle	SEA 13:53 → OGG 16:59AS 223	12h 03m	97%	69%
Alaska Details →	DFW 06:24 → SEA 08:45AS 543	1h 30m Seattle	SEA 10:15 → OGG 13:19AS 929	11h 55m	93%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON