Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1820 at 08:22 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 1820 DFW 08:22 → ONT 09:43 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 1695 DFW 21:19 → ONT 22:39 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1820 American Flight history →	DFW 08:22	ONT 09:43	11%	3%	0.8%	79%
AA 2635 American Flight history →	DFW 12:08	ONT 13:32	13%	4%	0.8%	84%
AA 2956 American Flight history →	DFW 10:42	ONT 12:01	14%	4%	0.8%	74%
F9 4689 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 17:04	ONT 18:39	16%	6%	0.8%	79%
AA 2147 American	DFW 18:53	ONT 20:15	22%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 1695 American	DFW 21:19	ONT 22:39	23%	6%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON