Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 3869 at 07:04 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–24%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3869 DFW 07:04 → ORF 10:59 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1379 DFW 20:07 → ORF 00:28 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3869 Envoy	DFW 07:04	ORF 10:59	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2282 American Flight history →	DFW 10:23	ORF 14:39	14%	6%	0.7%	76%
AA 1379 American	DFW 20:07	ORF 00:28	24%	9%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON