Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AS 646 at 17:45 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–24%.

Safest bet that day AS 646 DFW 17:45 → PDX 19:49 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 2298 DFW 21:14 → PDX 23:23 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 646 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 17:45	PDX 19:49	11%	3%	0.7%	82%
AS 638 Alaska	DFW 14:30	PDX 16:23	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2655 American Flight history →	DFW 08:56	PDX 11:13	15%	3%	0.8%	75%
AA 2496 American Flight history →	DFW 11:22	PDX 13:31	19%	4%	0.8%	76%
AA 685 American Flight history →	DFW 17:07	PDX 19:17	21%	7%	0.8%	53%
AA 2028 American Flight history →	DFW 14:57	PDX 17:08	22%	6%	0.8%	51%
AA 2298 American Flight history →	DFW 21:14	PDX 23:23	24%	5%	0.8%	53%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DFW 12:30 → SLC 14:20DL 2798	57m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09DL 1244	5h 39m	90%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON