Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2315 at 09:47 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 2315 DFW 09:47 → PHX 10:54 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2942 DFW 21:19 → PHX 22:04 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2315 American	DFW 09:47	PHX 10:54	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2905 American	DFW 10:28	PHX 11:08	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 474 American Flight history →	DFW 07:08	PHX 07:34	12%	4%	0.8%	84%
AA 359 American	DFW 11:22	PHX 12:05	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
F9 4655 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:25	PHX 08:15	13%	3%	0.8%	76%
AA 520 American Flight history →	DFW 08:55	PHX 09:29	14%	4%	0.7%	76%
AA 336 American Flight history →	DFW 12:31	PHX 13:15	15%	5%	0.7%	72%
AA 1548 American Flight history →	DFW 13:27	PHX 14:11	16%	6%	0.7%	92%
F9 3971 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 15:36	PHX 16:27	16%	6%	0.8%	81%
AA 1232 American	DFW 16:32	PHX 17:15	16%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 2047 American Flight history →	DFW 17:32	PHX 18:12	20%	7%	0.7%	76%
AA 3232 American	DFW 20:09	PHX 20:54	20%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2108 American Flight history →	DFW 14:30	PHX 14:57	20%	7%	0.7%	60%
AA 2942 American Flight history →	DFW 21:19	PHX 22:04	20%	4%	0.8%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON