Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 3982 at 09:16 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 3982 DFW 09:16 → PNS 11:19 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest OH 5554 DFW 20:12 → PNS 22:19 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3982 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:16	PNS 11:19	10%	2%	0.7%	90%
MQ 4114 Envoy	DFW 15:35	PNS 17:33	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2328 American Flight history →	DFW 12:56	PNS 14:58	15%	9%	0.8%	73%
OH 5554 PSA	DFW 20:12	PNS 22:19	24%	9%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON