Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Detroit, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Nonstops that day


AA 2312 American Flight history →	DFW 13:33	PWM 18:32	15%	6%	0.6%	56%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 10:20 → PWM 13:00DL 2479	6h 40m	100%	91%
American Details →	DFW 08:24 → ORD 10:58AA 328	2h 05m Chicago	ORD 13:03 → PWM 16:42AA 4741 · flown by Republic	7h 18m	98%	90%
American Details →	DFW 07:40 → LGA 12:13AA 1609	2h 28m New York	LGA 14:41 → PWM 16:06AA 2700	7h 26m	98%	89%
American Details →	DFW 05:02 → CLT 08:37AA 1091	1h 30m Charlotte	CLT 10:07 → PWM 12:37AA 1744	6h 35m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183	56m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → PWM 11:55DL 426	5h 35m	95%	89%
United Details →	DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773	3h 15m Denver	DEN 10:08 → PWM 16:10UA 372	9h 25m	100%	89%
American Details →	DFW 07:02 → DCA 10:59AA 1623	3h 32m Washington	DCA 14:31 → PWM 16:23AA 1423	8h 21m	100%	86%
American Details →	DFW 05:02 → DCA 09:03AA 1618	1h 13m Washington	DCA 10:16 → PWM 12:15AA 5528 · flown by PSA	6h 13m	97%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON