Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: F9 3330 at 07:39 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–19%.

Safest bet that day F9 3330 DFW 07:39 → RDU 11:45 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 979 DFW 17:02 → RDU 21:01 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 3330 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:39	RDU 11:45	8%	3%	0.7%	88%
AA 2693 American Flight history →	DFW 09:37	RDU 13:36	11%	3%	0.6%	72%
AA 2091 American Flight history →	DFW 12:22	RDU 16:11	14%	5%	0.6%	85%
AA 979 American Flight history →	DFW 17:02	RDU 21:01	19%	6%	0.6%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON