Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1911 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 1911 DFW 08:50 → RNO 10:11 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 3251 DFW 18:05 → RNO 19:32 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1911 American Flight history →	DFW 08:50	RNO 10:11	10%	3%	0.8%	83%
AA 324 American Flight history →	DFW 11:55	RNO 13:17	11%	5%	0.8%	73%
AA 1273 American Flight history →	DFW 22:32	RNO 23:58	15%	5%	0.8%	65%
AA 3251 American Flight history →	DFW 18:05	RNO 19:32	22%	6%	0.9%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON