Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 14–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1794 DFW 07:17 → SAN 08:31 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 551 DFW 14:52 → SAN 15:54 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1794 American	DFW 07:17	SAN 08:31	14%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 2034 American Flight history →	DFW 09:24	SAN 10:38	16%	5%	0.7%	73%
AA 2266 American	DFW 17:04	SAN 18:25	18%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 3109 American	DFW 10:58	SAN 12:15	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 1769 American	DFW 13:13	SAN 14:24	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 1789 American	DFW 17:52	SAN 19:04	22%	6%	0.8%	no record
AS 551 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 14:52	SAN 15:54	22%	7%	0.6%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON