Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: MQ 4039 at 10:06 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–28%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4039 DFW 10:06 → SAT 11:26 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1406 DFW 20:48 → SAT 22:00 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4039 Envoy	DFW 10:06	SAT 11:26	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 1836 American Flight history →	DFW 07:46	SAT 09:08	10%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 2759 American Flight history →	DFW 08:55	SAT 10:17	11%	5%	0.8%	80%
AA 3899 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:35	SAT 18:54	12%	3%	0.9%	62%
AA 413 American Flight history →	DFW 10:44	SAT 12:07	14%	6%	0.8%	71%
AA 2768 American	DFW 12:04	SAT 13:23	15%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 791 American	DFW 13:33	SAT 14:51	17%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 1961 American Flight history →	DFW 14:33	SAT 15:53	19%	8%	0.7%	67%
AA 2368 American Flight history →	DFW 18:35	SAT 19:53	24%	8%	0.9%	59%
AA 2374 American Flight history →	DFW 19:28	SAT 20:40	25%	8%	0.8%	53%
AA 3097 American Flight history →	DFW 21:56	SAT 23:04	26%	7%	0.9%	51%
AA 546 American Flight history →	DFW 19:55	SAT 21:03	27%	8%	0.8%	49%
AA 1406 American Flight history →	DFW 20:48	SAT 22:00	28%	8%	0.8%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON