Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 4206 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–19%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4206 DFW 09:00 → SAV 12:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1092 DFW 19:36 → SAV 23:05 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4206 Envoy	DFW 09:00	SAV 12:35	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4058 Envoy	DFW 08:56	SAV 12:43	8%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 2048 American Flight history →	DFW 10:55	SAV 14:35	15%	4%	0.6%	78%
AA 1092 American Flight history →	DFW 19:36	SAV 23:05	19%	8%	0.7%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON