Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 1822 at 10:09, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 1822 American	DFW 10:09	SBA 11:42	13%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Barbara is 2 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31DL 1291	1h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	6h 14m	96%	91%
American Details →	DFW 13:27 → PHX 14:10AA 1548	2h 56m Phoenix	PHX 17:06 → SBA 18:54AA 1855	7h 27m	100%	89%
United Details →	DFW 16:50 → DEN 18:20UA 1303	1h 03m Denver	DEN 19:23 → SBA 20:59UA 2479	6h 09m	85%	70%
United Details →	DFW 07:29 → SFO 09:29UA 790	1h 00m San Francisco	SFO 10:29 → SBA 11:52UA 1578	6h 23m	90%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON