Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: MQ 4051 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–22%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4051 DFW 08:10 → SDF 11:34 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2049 DFW 15:42 → SDF 19:03 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4051 Envoy	DFW 08:10	SDF 11:34	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 3791 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:31	SDF 12:48	5%	1%	0.6%	94%
AA 3629 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:14	SDF 17:37	8%	2%	0.6%	74%
AA 2813 American	DFW 12:03	SDF 15:22	18%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 2212 American	DFW 18:33	SDF 21:55	22%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 2049 American Flight history →	DFW 15:42	SDF 19:03	22%	8%	0.6%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON