Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4331 DFW 07:39 → SGF 09:11 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 4311 DFW 17:00 → SGF 18:37 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4331 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:39	SGF 09:11	7%	1%	0.8%	93%
AA 4328 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:40	SGF 12:07	7%	2%	0.8%	86%
AA 3494 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 12:37	SGF 14:13	8%	2%	0.8%	86%
AA 3952 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 11:10	SGF 12:47	9%	2%	0.8%	90%
AA 3556 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:20	SGF 15:56	11%	3%	0.8%	85%
AA 4092 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 20:23	SGF 21:54	11%	3%	0.8%	82%
MQ 3591 Envoy	DFW 17:34	SGF 19:05	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 3671 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:01	SGF 20:31	13%	4%	0.8%	70%
AA 4311 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:00	SGF 18:37	13%	3%	0.8%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON