Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4009 DFW 08:31 → SHV 09:47 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 6410 DFW 17:17 → SHV 18:26 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4009 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 08:31	SHV 09:47	4%	1%	0.7%	92%
MQ 3479 Envoy	DFW 12:27	SHV 13:37	7%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 4902 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 21:33	SHV 22:42	8%	3%	0.6%	91%
OO 6331 SkyWest	DFW 10:18	SHV 11:29	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 6245 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 19:10	SHV 20:19	10%	4%	0.6%	74%
AA 6410 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 17:17	SHV 18:26	13%	4%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON