Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2046 DFW 09:04 → SJC 10:56 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AA 364 DFW 21:09 → SJC 23:34 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2046 American Flight history →	DFW 09:04	SJC 10:56	10%	3%	0.8%	77%
AA 2834 American Flight history →	DFW 12:04	SJC 13:54	13%	4%	0.7%	75%
AA 364 American Flight history →	DFW 21:09	SJC 23:34	19%	5%	0.8%	66%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DFW 16:00 → LAX 17:23DL 521	54m Los Angeles	LAX 18:17 → SJC 19:32DL 3883 · flown by SkyWest	5h 32m	89%	80%
Delta Details →	DFW 12:30 → SLC 14:20DL 2798	50m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → SJC 16:04DL 1260	5h 34m	86%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON