Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2081 DFW 08:17 → SMF 10:26 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 651 DFW 19:15 → SMF 21:10 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2081 American Flight history →	DFW 08:17	SMF 10:26	9%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 2078 American Flight history →	DFW 11:39	SMF 13:46	10%	5%	0.7%	79%
AA 509 American Flight history →	DFW 22:30	SMF 23:59	16%	4%	0.9%	44%
AA 651 American Flight history →	DFW 19:15	SMF 21:10	17%	5%	0.8%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON