Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1686 DFW 06:53 → SNA 08:17 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 806 DFW 19:15 → SNA 20:22 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1686 American Flight history →	DFW 06:53	SNA 08:17	9%	2%	0.8%	90%
AA 2114 American Flight history →	DFW 08:21	SNA 09:45	11%	3%	0.8%	78%
AA 1939 American	DFW 09:43	SNA 11:03	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1933 American	DFW 11:22	SNA 12:45	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2659 American Flight history →	DFW 14:23	SNA 15:46	16%	4%	0.8%	80%
AA 2465 American Flight history →	DFW 13:38	SNA 14:50	16%	4%	0.8%	84%
AA 3223 American Flight history →	DFW 16:10	SNA 17:33	16%	4%	0.8%	80%
AA 806 American Flight history →	DFW 19:15	SNA 20:22	18%	4%	1.1%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON