tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 20%, against 9% on a calm day. Safest: MQ 4072 at 13:16, 20%.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
MQ 4072 Envoy DFW 13:16 SRQ 17:04 20% 3% 2.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DFW 06:45 → ATL 09:59DL 893 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SRQ 15:23DL 3115 7h 38m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:50 → ATL 09:03DL 401 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 10:48 → SRQ 12:27DL 3104 5h 37m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → DFW 12:17 → ATL 15:35DL 961 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 18:17 → SRQ 19:55DL 3109 6h 38m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → DFW 07:08 → ORD 09:50UA 1695 1h 20m Chicago ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287 7h 04m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → DFW 05:02 → CLT 08:37AA 1091 1h 50m Charlotte CLT 10:27 → SRQ 12:29AA 1452 6h 27m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696 3h 36m Charlotte CLT 19:12 → SRQ 21:07AA 2604 8h 12m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → DFW 13:00 → EWR 17:37UA 1574 2h 32m Newark EWR 20:09 → SRQ 23:15UA 1324 9h 15m 95% 69%
AmericanDetails → DFW 14:25 → MIA 18:24AA 1167 3h 32m Miami MIA 21:56 → SRQ 23:05AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 7h 40m 96% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DFW 17:00 → MIA 21:07AA 3308 49m Miami MIA 21:56 → SRQ 23:05AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 5h 05m 63% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON