Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: MQ 4074 at 10:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4074 DFW 10:30 → STL 12:33 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2487 DFW 17:14 → STL 19:12 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4074 Envoy	DFW 10:30	STL 12:33	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 3333 American	DFW 07:23	STL 09:22	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 3944 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:43	STL 16:40	14%	3%	0.8%	91%
AA 1363 American Flight history →	DFW 12:43	STL 14:41	20%	6%	0.7%	57%
AA 1445 American	DFW 21:45	STL 23:42	22%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2761 American Flight history →	DFW 16:04	STL 18:01	25%	7%	0.8%	56%
AA 2487 American Flight history →	DFW 17:14	STL 19:12	26%	7%	0.8%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON