Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2516 at 06:51 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 2516 DFW 06:51 → TPA 10:38 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 2256 DFW 18:33 → TPA 22:19 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 37% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2516 American Flight history →	DFW 06:51	TPA 10:38	9%	2%	0.9%	84%
AA 3112 American Flight history →	DFW 10:02	TPA 13:50	14%	3%	0.9%	76%
F9 2402 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 15:19	TPA 19:10	18%	5%	0.9%	74%
AA 1957 American	DFW 12:49	TPA 16:35	18%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 2512 American Flight history →	DFW 14:18	TPA 18:03	27%	7%	0.8%	67%
AA 2401 American Flight history →	DFW 17:29	TPA 21:15	28%	7%	1.0%	56%
AA 2256 American Flight history →	DFW 18:33	TPA 22:19	30%	7%	1.1%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON