Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 4063 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 4063 DFW 06:59 → TUL 08:17 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2014 DFW 20:27 → TUL 21:46 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 31% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4063 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 06:59	TUL 08:17	8%	2%	0.7%	95%
AA 2348 American Flight history →	DFW 08:44	TUL 10:06	12%	3%	0.7%	80%
AA 2352 American Flight history →	DFW 10:45	TUL 12:07	14%	4%	0.7%	87%
AA 531 American Flight history →	DFW 22:38	TUL 23:47	15%	4%	0.7%	62%
AA 2851 American Flight history →	DFW 14:19	TUL 15:38	16%	6%	0.7%	85%
AA 2830 American	DFW 16:08	TUL 17:28	17%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 2014 American Flight history →	DFW 20:27	TUL 21:46	20%	6%	0.8%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON