Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, MQ 4199 at 12:05, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


MQ 4199 Envoy	DFW 12:05	TVC 16:05	10%	2%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23DL 1276	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	4h 59m	96%	87%
United Details →	DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773	2h 56m Denver	DEN 09:49 → TVC 14:35UA 2420	7h 50m	100%	85%
American Details →	DFW 08:24 → ORD 10:57AA 328	1h 24m Chicago	ORD 12:21 → TVC 14:36AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest	5h 12m	97%	78%
United Details →	DFW 12:00 → ORD 14:42UA 1401	3h 42m Chicago	ORD 18:24 → TVC 20:32UA 677	7h 32m	99%	69%
United Details →	DFW 17:47 → ORD 20:30UA 1564	55m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → TVC 23:32UA 2071	4h 45m	80%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON