Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 2854 American Flight history →	DSM 07:04	CLT 10:30	5%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 2962 American Flight history →	DSM 13:30	CLT 16:52	9%	3%	0.7%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → CLT 13:31DL 2157	6h 50m	99%	92%
American Details →	DSM 06:55 → ORD 08:32AA 4383 · flown by Republic	3h 20m Chicago	ORD 11:52 → CLT 14:59AA 3021	7h 04m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	DSM 11:30 → ATL 14:43DL 1704	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → CLT 19:21DL 3158	6h 51m	99%	91%
American Details →	DSM 07:11 → LGA 11:00AA 4795 · flown by Republic	3h 31m New York	LGA 14:31 → CLT 16:53AA 2033	8h 42m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:54 → MSP 12:06DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	2h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 14:30 → CLT 18:02DL 2820	6h 08m	98%	87%
American Details →	DSM 13:18 → PHL 17:03AA 5479 · flown by PSA	1h 58m Philadelphia	PHL 19:01 → CLT 21:00AA 2189	6h 42m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	DSM 14:25 → ATL 17:38DL 2094	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 18:59 → CLT 20:11DL 2132	4h 46m	96%	87%
American Details →	DSM 06:41 → DFW 08:54AA 2326	3h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	7h 55m	99%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DSM 18:03 → MSP 19:15DL 5020 · flown by Endeavor	59m Minneapolis	MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929	4h 41m	73%	67%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:25 → DTW 13:14DL 5048 · flown by Endeavor	51m Detroit	DTW 14:05 → CLT 15:55DL 1429	4h 30m	66%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON