tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OH 5238 PSA DSM 05:50 DCA 09:22 10% 4% 0.8% no record
YX 4435 Republic DSM 14:18 DCA 18:07 10% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DSM 06:55 → ORD 08:32AA 4383 · flown by Republic 1h 25m Chicago ORD 09:57 → DCA 13:12AA 315 5h 17m 100% 91%
AmericanDetails → DSM 07:11 → LGA 11:00AA 4795 · flown by Republic 2h 42m New York LGA 13:42 → DCA 15:14AA 4773 · flown by Republic 7h 03m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → DSM 07:06 → MSP 08:20DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor 2h 05m Minneapolis MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983 5h 42m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → DSM 05:52 → DTW 08:41DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor 1h 19m Detroit DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476 4h 36m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 10:58 → DCA 12:47DL 1798 6h 06m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → DSM 08:01 → ORD 09:27UA 2668 3h 18m Chicago ORD 12:45 → DCA 15:52UA 752 6h 51m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → DSM 10:50 → MSP 12:03DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor 2h 34m Minneapolis MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963 6h 19m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → DSM 06:41 → DFW 08:53AA 2326 3h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414 8h 18m 99% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON