Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5950 DSM 11:38 → DEN 13:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1781 DSM 17:17 → DEN 18:23 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5950 SkyWest	DSM 11:38	DEN 13:00	5%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1712 Southwest	DSM 07:11	DEN 08:02	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2064 United	DSM 13:21	DEN 14:42	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1521 United Flight history →	DSM 09:14	DEN 10:20	8%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 1348 United	DSM 11:43	DEN 12:43	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1545 Southwest	DSM 18:44	DEN 19:36	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1781 United Flight history →	DSM 17:17	DEN 18:23	14%	4%	0.6%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON