tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 1982 at 06:20, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1982 United Flight history → DSM 06:20 IAH 08:49 5% 3% 0.5% 91%
UA 6117 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record DSM 15:01 IAH 17:25 20% 8% 1.8% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DSM 08:01 → ORD 09:27UA 2668 3h 13m Chicago ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:40UA 1448 7h 39m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 7h 52m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → DSM 14:25 → ATL 17:38DL 2094 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284 6h 59m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → DSM 11:30 → ATL 14:43DL 1704 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → IAH 19:39DL 2327 8h 09m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → DSM 06:41 → DFW 08:54AA 2326 1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:11 → IAH 11:26AA 3829 · flown by Envoy 4h 45m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → DSM 10:54 → MSP 12:06DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor 2h 39m Minneapolis MSP 14:45 → IAH 17:39DL 2644 6h 45m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → DSM 15:07 → ORD 16:46UA 312 3h 16m Chicago ORD 20:02 → IAH 22:59UA 2813 7h 52m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → DSM 07:04 → CLT 10:30AA 2854 2h 00m Charlotte CLT 12:30 → IAH 14:03AA 398 6h 59m 98% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON