Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 17:17, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time.

Nonstops that day


AA 6409 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DSM 18:05	LAX 19:57	11%	4%	0.6%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	10h 31m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:13 → DTW 13:04DL 5058 · flown by Endeavor	2h 46m Detroit	DTW 15:50 → LAX 17:33DL 883	9h 20m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	DSM 07:06 → MSP 08:20DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor	3h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119	8h 17m	98%	90%
American Details →	DSM 07:04 → CLT 10:30AA 2854	2h 51m Charlotte	CLT 13:21 → LAX 15:18AA 352	10h 14m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DSM 11:30 → ATL 14:43DL 1704	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 17:58 → LAX 19:30DL 500	10h 00m	99%	89%
United Details →	DSM 06:20 → IAH 08:49UA 1982	3h 44m Houston	IAH 12:33 → LAX 14:06UA 2460	9h 46m	99%	89%
American Details →	DSM 06:55 → ORD 08:32AA 4383 · flown by Republic	3h 37m Chicago	ORD 12:09 → LAX 14:36AA 3008	9h 41m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:50 → MSP 12:03DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 13:09 → LAX 15:08DL 2974	6h 18m	94%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON