Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 4795 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DSM 07:11	LGA 11:00	7%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 4945 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DSM 07:06	LGA 10:53	10%	3%	0.7%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371	6h 01m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	DSM 05:52 → DTW 08:41DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor	1h 24m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → LGA 11:50DL 2589	4h 58m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	DSM 14:25 → ATL 17:38DL 2094	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520	7h 59m	100%	86%
American Details →	DSM 06:55 → ORD 08:32AA 4383 · flown by Republic	1h 32m Chicago	ORD 10:04 → LGA 13:22AA 3128	5h 27m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	DSM 07:06 → MSP 08:20DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor	1h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → LGA 13:45DL 2764	5h 39m	95%	84%
United Details →	DSM 08:01 → ORD 09:27UA 2668	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 12:12 → LGA 15:25UA 786	6h 24m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	DSM 11:30 → ATL 14:43DL 1704	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434	7h 57m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:50 → MSP 12:03DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	3h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 15:30 → LGA 19:18DL 2732	7h 28m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON