Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1715 Southwest	DSM 06:16	MDW 07:37	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 379 Southwest	DSM 14:44	MDW 16:04	7%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DSM 05:52 → DTW 08:41DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor	3h 29m Detroit	DTW 12:10 → MDW 12:33DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	6h 41m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	DSM 07:06 → MSP 08:20DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor	3h 46m Minneapolis	MSP 12:06 → MDW 13:47DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	6h 41m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 15m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	DSM 14:25 → ATL 17:38DL 2094	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	7h 50m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	DSM 14:44 → MSP 15:57DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor	1h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 17:01 → MDW 18:42DL 4714 · flown by Endeavor	3h 58m	90%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON