Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 4383 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 4383 DSM 06:55 → ORD 08:32 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest UA 2770 DSM 19:31 → ORD 20:57 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4383 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DSM 06:55	ORD 08:32	6%	2%	0.6%	100%
OO 6024 SkyWest	DSM 06:08	ORD 07:39	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2668 United Flight history →	DSM 08:01	ORD 09:27	9%	3%	0.5%	85%
OO 4955 SkyWest	DSM 10:43	ORD 12:24	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 4928 SkyWest	DSM 21:30	ORD 22:51	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 6040 SkyWest	DSM 13:29	ORD 15:05	12%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 2769 United	DSM 11:36	ORD 12:56	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
YX 4769 Republic	DSM 17:54	ORD 19:31	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 312 United Flight history →	DSM 15:07	ORD 16:46	16%	4%	0.5%	73%
OO 4933 SkyWest	DSM 14:37	ORD 16:14	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 2770 United	DSM 19:31	ORD 20:57	19%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON