Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OH 5075 PSA	DSM 06:09	PHL 09:41	6%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 5479 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DSM 13:18	PHL 17:03	8%	4%	0.8%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DSM 05:52 → DTW 08:41DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor	1h 29m Detroit	DTW 10:10 → PHL 11:46DL 2331	4h 54m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	DSM 07:06 → MSP 08:20DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor	2h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679	6h 37m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	6h 43m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:50 → MSP 12:03DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	2h 22m Minneapolis	MSP 14:25 → PHL 18:04DL 2594	6h 14m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:13 → DTW 13:04DL 5058 · flown by Endeavor	1h 56m Detroit	DTW 15:00 → PHL 16:43DL 1391	5h 30m	97%	88%
United Details →	DSM 08:01 → ORD 09:27UA 2668	2h 06m Chicago	ORD 11:33 → PHL 14:47UA 2182	5h 46m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DSM 14:25 → ATL 17:38DL 2094	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065	5h 55m	96%	86%
American Details →	DSM 07:04 → CLT 10:30AA 2854	2h 32m Charlotte	CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573	6h 46m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON