tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 6271 SkyWest DSM 05:27 PHX 06:44 6% 4% 0.6% no record
OO 6262 SkyWest DSM 14:24 PHX 15:51 9% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DSM 10:50 → MSP 12:03DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor 2h 51m Minneapolis MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284 7h 19m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → DSM 07:06 → MSP 08:20DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor 3h 12m Minneapolis MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274 7h 40m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 8h 22m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → DSM 14:25 → ATL 17:38DL 2094 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → PHX 21:45DL 929 9h 20m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → DSM 14:44 → MSP 15:57DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor 2h 51m Minneapolis MSP 18:48 → PHX 20:06DL 2297 7h 22m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → DSM 09:14 → DEN 10:20UA 1521 3h 07m Denver DEN 13:27 → PHX 14:33UA 631 7h 19m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → DSM 08:01 → ORD 09:27UA 2668 1h 45m Chicago ORD 11:12 → PHX 13:05UA 2164 7h 04m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → DSM 07:04 → CLT 10:30AA 2854 1h 07m Charlotte CLT 11:37 → PHX 12:56AA 588 7h 52m 95% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON