Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3784 DTW 07:13 → ALB 08:54 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 2660 DTW 21:45 → ALB 23:21 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3784 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 07:13	ALB 08:54	8%	4%	0.6%	93%
DL 3810 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 10:42	ALB 12:24	11%	3%	0.5%	84%
DL 3809 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 14:33	ALB 16:15	11%	3%	0.5%	81%
DL 2660 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:45	ALB 23:21	12%	3%	0.5%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON