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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Seattle, leaving 16:46, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Anchorage on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944 3h 07m Seattle SEA 21:49 → ANC 00:42 +1DL 936 11h 56m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → DTW 08:35 → SEA 10:34DL 734 3h 06m Seattle SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928 11h 50m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → DTW 05:50 → SEA 07:42DL 732 2h 53m Seattle SEA 10:35 → ANC 13:17DL 922 11h 27m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → DTW 15:32 → DEN 16:45UA 302 2h 24m Denver DEN 19:09 → ANC 22:58UA 280 11h 26m 98% 82%
AlaskaDetails → DTW 07:01 → SEA 09:00AS 344 3h 10m Seattle SEA 12:10 → ANC 14:54AS 1434 11h 53m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → DTW 11:39 → DFW 13:37AA 3101 1h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:17 → ANC 19:28AA 399 11h 49m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → DTW 12:20 → MSP 13:10DL 2697 1h 15m Minneapolis MSP 14:25 → ANC 16:56DL 411 8h 36m 93% 79%
AlaskaDetails → DTW 17:31 → SEA 19:33AS 313 2h 29m Seattle SEA 22:02 → ANC 00:46 +1AS 1490 11h 15m 99% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON