Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 2–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1717 DTW 06:02 → BNA 06:38 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2316 DTW 16:01 → BNA 16:40 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1717 Southwest	DTW 06:02	BNA 06:38	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 2682 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:30	BNA 09:11	6%	2%	0.5%	89%
DL 1557 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:25	BNA 13:03	8%	2%	0.5%	89%
WN 1280 Southwest	DTW 19:10	BNA 19:47	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 2126 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:35	BNA 22:15	11%	3%	0.6%	75%
DL 2316 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:01	BNA 16:40	11%	3%	0.5%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON