Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: OO 3863 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–18%.

Safest bet that day OO 3863 DTW 07:10 → BUF 08:28 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4610 DTW 18:22 → BUF 19:37 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3863 SkyWest	DTW 07:10	BUF 08:28	8%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 3861 SkyWest	DTW 10:07	BUF 11:22	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 978 Delta Flight history →	DTW 22:50	BUF 23:58	13%	6%	0.7%	74%
OO 3870 SkyWest	DTW 13:54	BUF 15:09	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 3856 SkyWest	DTW 17:42	BUF 18:57	17%	6%	0.8%	no record
OO 4610 SkyWest	DTW 18:22	BUF 19:37	18%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON