Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1722 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 1722 DTW 05:35 → BWI 07:06 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2480 DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1722 Southwest	DTW 05:35	BWI 07:06	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 2341 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:10	BWI 08:44	5%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 1546 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:15	BWI 11:47	8%	2%	0.7%	86%
WN 4571 Southwest	DTW 14:49	BWI 16:25	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 2715 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:04	BWI 21:45	12%	4%	0.7%	78%
DL 2480 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:05	BWI 16:41	14%	4%	0.7%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON