Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2481 DTW 07:05 → CLT 08:52 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 1683 DTW 14:52 → CLT 16:48 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2481 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	CLT 08:52	5%	2%	0.7%	87%
AA 1439 American Flight history →	DTW 07:30	CLT 09:31	6%	2%	0.7%	94%
AA 387 American Flight history →	DTW 06:00	CLT 07:51	6%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 2684 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:37	CLT 12:24	7%	2%	0.6%	85%
AA 2582 American Flight history →	DTW 10:53	CLT 12:48	8%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 1429 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:05	CLT 15:55	12%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 2352 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:05	CLT 21:57	13%	4%	0.7%	74%
AA 1683 American Flight history →	DTW 14:52	CLT 16:48	13%	4%	0.7%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON