Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1558 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 1558 DTW 07:05 → DCA 08:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest DL 1454 DTW 14:55 → DCA 16:34 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1558 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	DCA 08:40	6%	3%	0.8%	81%
AA 5244 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 06:41	DCA 08:31	7%	4%	1.5%	84%
AA 5660 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 09:55	DCA 11:41	8%	4%	1.7%	80%
DL 2476 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:00	DCA 11:28	11%	4%	0.8%	87%
DL 2073 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:24	DCA 22:59	16%	8%	0.9%	70%
YX 4382 Republic	DTW 17:21	DCA 19:16	17%	8%	1.3%	no record
DL 2030 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:18	DCA 18:59	20%	8%	0.9%	59%
DL 1454 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:55	DCA 16:34	24%	10%	0.8%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON