Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1113 DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 2431 DTW 16:21 → DEN 17:27 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1113 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:40	DEN 09:47	5%	1%	0.4%	87%
WN 4886 Southwest	DTW 07:07	DEN 08:10	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2302 United Flight history →	DTW 09:03	DEN 10:24	6%	2%	0.5%	94%
DL 1648 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:42	DEN 13:45	6%	2%	0.4%	85%
WN 267 Southwest	DTW 13:45	DEN 14:46	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1644 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:36	DEN 22:44	8%	1%	0.5%	72%
UA 302 United Flight history →	DTW 15:32	DEN 16:45	8%	2%	0.5%	83%
F9 2211 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 07:40	DEN 08:54	10%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 2431 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:21	DEN 17:27	10%	1%	0.5%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON