Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 482 at 07:58 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 482 DTW 07:58 → DFW 09:54 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest F9 3129 DTW 19:50 → DFW 21:49 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 482 American Flight history →	DTW 07:58	DFW 09:54	10%	3%	0.9%	88%
AA 1240 American	DTW 06:03	DFW 08:01	10%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 3101 American Flight history →	DTW 11:44	DFW 13:36	12%	3%	0.8%	89%
DL 2746 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:35	DFW 10:24	13%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 1207 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:46	DFW 22:32	15%	6%	0.7%	74%
DL 1041 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:45	DFW 14:32	16%	4%	0.6%	86%
F9 3177 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 11:49	DFW 13:46	17%	5%	1.2%	79%
AA 3310 American Flight history →	DTW 17:11	DFW 19:15	19%	6%	0.9%	67%
DL 1441 Delta	DTW 15:58	DFW 17:41	24%	5%	0.7%	no record
F9 3129 Frontier	DTW 19:50	DFW 21:49	24%	10%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON