Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5058 DTW 09:03 → DSM 09:52 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 5345 DTW 16:37 → DSM 17:27 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5058 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 09:03	DSM 09:52	6%	2%	0.7%	87%
DL 5087 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 20:00	DSM 20:59	8%	3%	0.7%	65%
DL 5345 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 16:37	DSM 17:27	9%	3%	0.7%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON