Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:17 am at Detroit)

Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:01, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops today


DL 307 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:30	HNL 14:07	14%	4%	0.1%	77%
DL 385 Delta	DTW 10:31	HNL 13:59	15%	4%	0.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746	2h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312	12h 42m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837	14h 03m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	DTW 06:50 → JFK 08:31DL 5216 · flown by Endeavor	1h 26m New York	JFK 09:57 → HNL 14:26DL 636	13h 36m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:25 → SLC 10:21DL 698	1h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316	11h 54m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:35 → LAX 10:20DL 523	3h 35m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	14h 08m	99%	79%
United Details →	DTW 09:05 → DEN 10:27UA 2302	1h 33m Denver	DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384	12h 08m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:39 → MSP 09:28DL 2258	53m Minneapolis	MSP 10:21 → HNL 13:46DL 372	11h 07m	85%	73%
United Details →	DTW 06:58 → SFO 09:18UA 1550	1h 27m San Francisco	SFO 10:45 → HNL 13:20UA 2380	12h 22m	94%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON