Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1043 DTW 08:40 → IAH 10:37 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest F9 1957 DTW 13:01 → IAH 15:03 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1043 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:40	IAH 10:37	7%	2%	0.5%	84%
UA 234 United	DTW 06:11	IAH 08:02	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1307 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:25	IAH 14:15	9%	2%	0.5%	86%
DL 1718 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:59	IAH 17:49	11%	3%	0.5%	68%
F9 1957 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 13:01	IAH 15:03	15%	4%	0.7%	66%
UA 6251 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 10:55	IAH 12:57	13%	4%	0.4%	87%
UA 4032 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 18:40	IAH 20:50	23%	5%	0.0%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON