Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: B6 1419 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–32%.

Safest bet that day B6 1419 DTW 06:00 → JFK 07:47 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest B6 819 DTW 17:23 → JFK 19:07 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


B6 1419 JetBlue Flight history →	DTW 06:00	JFK 07:47	10%	3%	1.6%	84%
DL 2751 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:14	JFK 11:58	12%	4%	1.7%	91%
DL 2934 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:18	JFK 18:29	19%	12%	1.4%	79%
DL 1316 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:58	JFK 19:41	26%	13%	1.2%	62%
B6 819 JetBlue	DTW 17:23	JFK 19:07	32%	11%	2.0%	no record
DL 5216 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 07:03	JFK 09:00	19%	10%	2.3%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON