Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 334 DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest F9 2801 DTW 08:30 → LAS 09:57 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 334 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:59	LAS 10:12	9%	2%	0.6%	82%
WN 4079 Southwest	DTW 11:39	LAS 12:59	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 916 Delta Flight history →	DTW 19:47	LAS 21:25	12%	5%	0.7%	72%
DL 766 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:35	LAS 17:51	13%	5%	0.7%	73%
DL 421 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:15	LAS 13:28	14%	3%	0.6%	76%
F9 2801 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 08:30	LAS 09:57	15%	5%	0.7%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DTW 20:06 → MSP 21:00DL 1303	53m Minneapolis	MSP 21:53 → LAS 23:23DL 1442	6h 17m	83%	73%
United Details →	DTW 18:56 → ORD 19:14UA 426	1h 12m Chicago	ORD 20:26 → LAS 22:15UA 777	6h 19m	79%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON