Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 4477 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–15%.

Safest bet that day AA 4477 DTW 06:00 → LGA 07:47 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 2604 DTW 17:59 → LGA 19:50 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4477 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 06:00	LGA 07:47	4%	2%	0.7%	87%
YX 4376 Republic	DTW 09:30	LGA 11:26	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1487 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:00	LGA 08:47	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 1791 Delta	DTW 08:52	LGA 10:42	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2589 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:05	LGA 11:50	8%	2%	0.6%	86%
AA 4339 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 14:23	LGA 16:21	9%	5%	0.7%	56%
DL 2603 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:50	LGA 23:40	9%	5%	0.7%	74%
DL 2602 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:02	LGA 15:53	11%	5%	0.7%	76%
DL 1669 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:15	LGA 14:03	11%	3%	0.6%	76%
AA 4414 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 19:33	LGA 21:34	13%	6%	0.7%	68%
DL 2604 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:59	LGA 19:50	15%	6%	0.7%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON